What if in 1968…?

The shocking document that could have changed everything.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

—Proverb

Your future is whatever you make it. So make it a good one.

—Doc Brown, Back to the Future: Part III

The 1960s in the United States was a decade of sweeping change, marked by political shifts, cultural revolutions, and scientific breakthroughs. The Civil Rights Movement gained momentum, leading to the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which outlawed segregation and discrimination, and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which aimed to protect Black Americans’ right to vote. Meanwhile, the Vietnam War escalated, prompting nationwide protests, including massive demonstrations against the draft.

It was also a time of heartbreak and turmoil. The decade began with the shocking assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963, followed by the killings of Malcolm X in 1965 and Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy in 1968. These events shook the nation, fueling unrest and calls for justice. The decade also saw the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war before a tense resolution between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

Despite the challenges, the 1960s brought exciting innovations and cultural milestones. The U.S. took major steps toward space exploration with NASA’s Apollo program, successfully sending astronauts around the Moon in Apollo 8 (1968) in preparation for a lunar landing. Meanwhile, pop culture thrived—television shows like Star Trek (1966) and Mister Rogers' Neighborhood (1968) debuted, The Beatles took America by storm in 1964, and miniskirts, go-go boots, and tie-dye became fashion staples.

From political upheaval to scientific achievements and cultural shifts, the 1960s redefined American life. Though filled with struggle, it was also an era of hope, creativity, and groundbreaking progress that set the stage for the future.

Yet, in 1968, the National Center for Health Statistics released a crucial document—one that barely made a ripple. Had it been widely recognized, much of the fear surrounding microbes, vaccines, and the medical system might never have taken hold. Shocking, isn’t it? So, what was this overlooked report? It carried the most unremarkable title imaginable: Vital Statistics of the United States, 1940-1960.[1] Sounds like a real page-turner, right? But buried within its dry, data-heavy pages was something that could have changed everything. It wasn’t what they said—it was the charts that told the real story.

In the United States, the measles vaccine was first introduced in 1963 but was quickly reformulated after reports of serious side effects, including atypical measles—a severe immune hypersensitivity reaction that affected an estimated 600,000 to 900,000 individuals who received the original killed-virus version. The improved live-attenuated vaccine was quietly rereleased in 1967 with little public notice.

Atypical measles was characterized by a higher and more prolonged fever, unusual skin lesions and severe pneumonitis compared to measles in previously unvaccinated persons. The rash was often accompanied by evidence of hemorrhage or vesiculation. The pneumonitis included distinct nodular parenchymal lesions and hilar adenopathy. Abdominal pain, hepatic dysfunction, headache, eosinophilia, pleural effusions and edema were also described. Cases of atypical measles were reported up to 16 years after receipt of the inactivated vaccine. Administration of the live virus vaccine after 2 to 3 doses of killed vaccine did not eliminate subsequent susceptibility to atypical measles and was often associated with severe reactions at the site of live virus inoculation.[2]

Yet the following chart reveals a striking anomaly: Measles deaths had already plummeted by 96% by 1960—years before the problematic 1963 vaccine was ever introduced.[3] This dramatic decline raises critical questions that few bothered to ask at the time: Why did measles fatalities collapse so sharply before vaccination? And if the disease was already waning, was the vaccine even necessary?

Tuberculosis was a formidable public health challenge for centuries, causing widespread illness and mortality. During the 18th and 19th centuries, tuberculosis was rampant in America and Europe and caused millions of deaths, particularly in the poorer classes. According to the Journal of the American Medical Association in 1894:

...that most fatal of all disease, that scourge of humanity, tuberculosis, better known as consumption. This disease causes more deaths than all the epidemic diseases combined. Statistics show that one-sixth of all deaths throughout the civilized world are caused by consumption.[4]

According to Thomas McKeown, an overwhelming 96.8% reduction in tuberculosis mortality occurred before the introduction of antibiotics and vaccination interventions. While McKeown acknowledged a mortality decrease following the introduction of Streptomycin and the BCG vaccination, it is difficult to identify a substantial impact of these interventions when examining the data.

Chemotherapy [Streptomycin, 1947; BCG Vaccination, 1954] reduced the number of deaths [from tuberculosis] in the period since it was introduced (1948-1971) by 51 per cent; for the total period since cause of death was first recorded (1848–71) the reduction was 3.2 per cent.[5]

The following chart reveals three critical insights about tuberculosis that mirror the measles story—yet few seem to notice.[6]

First, tuberculosis was a far deadlier threat than measles, claiming 13 times as many lives in 1900.

Second, like measles, TB’s death rate had already collapsed by 96% by 1960—a decline that began decades before streptomycin (1947) or BCG vaccination (1954), neither of which visibly altered the existing downward trajectory.

Third, and most telling: Despite being a historic killer, TB now receives scant attention in the U.S., where the vaccine was never widely adopted. The parallel is undeniable: Just as with measles, tuberculosis faded largely independent of medical intervention

The death rate charts for dysentery and typhoid reveal the same unmistakable pattern—one that public health narratives often overlook.[7] Both diseases saw their mortality rates collapse to near-zero levels before the advent of modern antibiotics and without any nationwide vaccination program.

For dysentery, deaths had virtually disappeared by the 1960s, decades before effective antibiotics became available. Typhoid tells an even more striking story: its mortality rate fell 99% between 1900 and 1950, while the vaccine (developed in 1896) remained rarely used in the general population.

The death rate chart for influenza and pneumonia reveals another striking parallel: an 85% decline in mortality by 1960—a staggering drop that mirrors the trends seen with measles, tuberculosis, dysentery, and typhoid.[8] Though deaths hadn’t yet reached zero, the downward trajectory was unmistakable, long before modern vaccines or antiviral treatments became widespread.

This consistent pattern across multiple diseases forces a critical—and often overlooked—question: If antibiotics, vaccines, and medical interventions weren’t the primary drivers of this decline, what was? The answer may lie not in the doctor’s office, but in the transformative improvements in sanitation, nutrition, and living standards that reshaped public health throughout the 20th century. Recognizing this pattern, McCormick, MD, wrote in 1951 that it wasn’t modern medicine, but something else that must have happened.

The usual explanation offered for this changed trend in infectious diseases has been the forward march of medicine in prophylaxis and therapy but, from a study of the literature, it is evident that these changes in incidence and mortality have been neither synchronous with nor proportionate to such measures. The decline in tuberculosis, for instance, began long before any special control measures, such as mass x-ray and sanitarium treatment, were instituted, even long before the infectious nature of the disease was discovered. The decline in pneumonia also began long before the use of the antibiotic drugs. Likewise, the decline in diphtheria, whooping cough and typhoid fever began fully years prior to the inception of artificial immunization and followed an almost even grade before and after the adoption of these control measures. In the case of scarlet fever, mumps, measles and rheumatic fever there has been no specific innovation in control measures, yet these also have followed the same general pattern in incidence decline. Furthermore, puerperal and infant mortality (under one year) has also shown a steady decline in keeping with that of the infectious diseases, thus obviously indicating the influence of some over-all unrecognized prophylactic factor.[9]

As the charts show, there were massive improvements in infant mortality and life expectancy. These improvements had to be due to causes other than medical interventions.[10]

The charts reveal an undeniable truth: The early 20th century saw seismic improvements in public health—infant mortality was slashed by huge amounts, and life expectancy skyrocketed by decades by 1960—mostly achieved before the era of modern medical interventions.

This consistent pattern across diseases forces us to confront an inconvenient truth: The triumph over infectious diseases was won not in laboratories, but in sewers, kitchens, and power plants. The real heroes of public health weren’t syringes or pills, but clean water, full pantries, and electric light.

Imagine for a moment you could step into a time machine—your choice of DeLorean or TARDIS—and deliver these charts to most of the public in 1968. The revelation would have shattered medical orthodoxy:

• The measles vaccine, promised to eradicate the disease by 1967[11],[12] might have been recognized as unnecessary—even reckless—given the disease’s near-disappearance before vaccination.
• The swine flu vaccine debacle of 1976 (which paralyzed more children than it saved) would never have happened.
• The dangerous whole-cell DTP vaccine, with its sky-high injury rates, wouldn’t have spurred the 1986 Vaccine Injury Act—the legal surrender that birthed today’s liability-free pharmaceutical industry.
• The endless booster treadmill—DTaP, HPV, mRNA—might never have taken hold, sparing millions from immune system damage or worse.

The ripple effects would have been profound: No WHO-GAVI vaccine empire. No panicked “outbreaks” when a case of measles appears in a city of millions. No CDC recommending endless new vaccines and adding them to an ever-expanding vaccine schedule. No COVID theater with its masks, lockdowns, and generational theft. Most crucially, we might have remembered medicine’s golden rule: First, do no harm.

Instead of today’s bloated medical-industrial complex skyrocketing toward 20% of GDP (up from 4.5% in the 1960s), we might have built a society where health flowed naturally from clean living, not chemical intervention. A world where children aren’t chronically ill, where trust in institutions hasn’t collapsed, and where “public health” meant actually improving lives—not expanding pharmaceutical profits.

The charts don’t just show forgotten history—they reveal the road not taken.

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[1] Robert D. Grove, Ph.D., and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics of the United States 1940-1960, National Center for Health Statistics, Washington, D.C., 1968, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf

[2] D. Griffin et al., “Measles Vaccines,” Frontiers in Bioscience, vol. 13, January 2008, pp. 1352–1370.

[3] Robert D. Grove, Ph.D., and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics of the United States 1940-1960, National Center for Health Statistics, Washington, D.C., 1968, p.85., https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf

[4] Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 23, July 14, 1894, p. 88.

[5] Thomas McKeown, The Role of Medicine: Dream, Mirage, or Nemesis? 1979, Princeton University Press, p. 93.

[6] Robert D. Grove, Ph.D., and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics of the United States 1940-1960, National Center for Health Statistics, Washington, D.C., 1968, p.80., https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf

[7] Robert D. Grove, Ph.D., and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics of the United States 1940-1960, National Center for Health Statistics, Washington, D.C., 1968, pp. 82, 83., https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf

[8] Robert D. Grove, Ph.D., and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics of the United States 1940-1960, National Center for Health Statistics, Washington, D.C., 1968, p.92., https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf

[9] W. J. McCormick, MD, “Vitamin C in the Prophylaxis and the Therapy of Infectious Diseases,” Archives of Pediatrics, vol. 68, no. 1, January 1951.

[10] Robert D. Grove, Ph.D., and Alice M. Hetzel, Vital Statistics of the United States 1940-1960, National Center for Health Statistics, Washington, D.C., 1968, pp. 64, 66., https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf

[11] David J. Sencer, MD; H. Bruce Dull, MD; and Alexander D. Langmuir, MD, “Epidemiologic Basis for Eradication of Measles in 1967,” Public Health Reports, vol. 82, no. 3, March 1967, p. 256.

[12] Jane E. Brody, “Measles Will Be Nearly Ended by ’67, U.S. Health Aides Say,” New York Times, May 24, 1966.